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Liang Zhipeng of National Energy Administration: the Solar Installation Capacity of China Will be 1000-1500 GW in 2030.

Release time:2016-03-23 Print Font size:TT


On March 21, Liang Zhihong, the Vice Director-general of New Energy and Renewable Energy Division attended in the 9th Asia Solar Energy Forum and gave a keynote speech. He made a deep analysis from the introduction of solar industry of China, policy, prospect and other angles. He pointed that the solar scale of China would reach 450-600GW up to 2030, 1000-150GW up to 2030 and it would not be imaged up to 2050.



The following is the whole text of the speech:


Liang Zhipeng: Dear leaders, guests, ladies and gentlemen, Good morning! Now let me introduce the policy of China supporting solar power generation and some expectations on future prospect. I would like to introduce the following three points: the first is the overview of solar industry of China, the second is the solar industrial policies and the third is the future prospect. 


The first is the industrial overview. Because the preceding honorable guest has introduced the development situation of China, the introduction is very detailed, I think I would like to introduce simple. I want to introduce the resource circumstance. Seeing from the depth of red color to the yellow color, in most part of China, 96% of area has the solar utilization conditions, 60% of area has rich solar resource and rich land resources, which can build large scale solar power generation station. In 2015, our polysilicon yield reached 165000 tons, accounting for 50% of the global yield. The output of our solar storage battery exceeded 43 million kwh, it accounted for 70% of the whole global market. The battery component is an important export source and the export amount was US$14.4 billion.  


The development of Chinese solar industry reached today's level in the past 15 years. Up to the year 2002, the problem that the power supply to the town and township were not realized was solved. At that time, our central government supported the electricity utilization project of the towns and townships without electricity. At that time it made more enterprises start the production of solar battery components, too. Later it gradually realized the development. In 2009, the Chinese government started the roof solar demonstration application, which is the “Golden Sun Project”. This started the roof application of China. It started large scale solar power station application through bidding invitation. The scale at that time was a 10 mw and we regarded it as the large scale at that time. Now, 10 mw is much less and the scale of 100mw is regarded as a large project. In 2011, National Development and Reform Commission issued a solar power generation price and it confirmed three electricity prices. The highest price was one Yuan each kwh, the middle is 0.95 Yuan each kwh and the lowest price is 0.9 Yuan each kwh. In 2013, the State Council issued the document No.24 which is to support the development of solar industry. From that time, Chinese solar power generation enters the large scale period.


Let us see this application simply. After 2013, the solar power generation application of China has entered quick development period. In the past three years, the newly increased solar power generation installation capacity exceeded 10GW each year. In 2015, it was 15GW. The accumulated installation capacity accumulated to be 43 million KW. From our distribution, we find that the solar application and solar resources are overlapped; the most is in Gansu Province, which has reached 6.1GW. In addition, Xinjiang and Qinghai has reached the level of 6GW. We also find that the installation capacity of Jiangsu Province in East China has reached nearly 44.2GW, it is shown that the East China has huge development potential. 


Give you an example, in Qinghai Longyang Gorge Hydraulic Power Station, building one water and electricity combined solar power station at GW level, the operating scale of this solar power generation has reached 850MW and the power generation capacity has reached 1.28GW each year. Our projects in late period continue to construction. In this area, this project still needs to increase one GW. This is a large sized solar power station at GW grade. What’s more, in Qinghai province, it is to study using water and electricity as the regulated power source and solar generation, in future, it needs to integrate sunshine and heat, it is planned to build 10 new energy power generation bases and renewable energy power generation base at GW level. In such bases, there is no fossil energy power generation; they are all renewable energy power. Now the plan is under way. 


We simply review China's policies on solar power generation. The policy is based on law. In 2006, China issued “Law of Renewable Energy “and it was modified in 2009, which further defined the policy on purchasing electricity price and the full amount purchase. In 2013, the State Council issued the policies supporting solar industry specially. In 2016, the price of solar power generation is regulated, that is the three prices said just now. Now they are regulated to 0.98 Yuan, 0.88 Yuan and 0.8 Yuan respectively. As regarding distributed solar power generation, taking this distributed self generating for self using as an example; we give the subsidy of 0.42 Yuan each kwh for the whole power generation. Meanwhile, the power grid company provides the service for distributed solar power generation and the service is free.


Our China has an important task in the past that is to solve the electricity using problem of the whole rural population. At the end of last year, we completed an arduous task. In 2013, we worked out a three-year plan for solving no power supply problem, we solve the problem of 2.7 million people's electricity using, or course, 1.5 million population's power supply is solved by extending the power grid. The last batch of population is dispersed and they are far away from the power grid, which needs to use solar power station and solar system to solve. Totally it solved the population of 1.2 million.


The application of our roof solar selects the application carried out in industrial park. Since 2013, we have selected 30 better industrial parks to carry out roof solar application. For an example, in Jiaqing city of Zhejiang Province, now it has reached the roof solar supply capacity, it is estimated that it will reach one GW of roof solar power generation capacity of 800 MW at the end of the year. 


Last year, we started the solar poverty alleviation project. The target of the poverty alleviation is to provide the economic benefit generated from the solar power generation for 2 million poverty-stricken populations. The target is that each household can increase income of RMB 3000 Yuan and each household needs to obtain 3000 Yuan for 20 years. As for the construction way, it includes household use and the solar power generation is 3-5 kw at least, the small sized power station at village level is included, too and its power generation capacity is 100-200KW. Furthermore, there are several kinds of power stations, using some shares of local area, local government's investment and local land resource stock participation. The local shares will be converted and will be given to the poverty-stricken families, which makes the poverty-stricken family get RMB 3000 Yuan.  Doing this work now, we find that this is a roof solar system and a small sized power station at village level.


In 2015, we did a thing. Namely, we started the top runner program. The scale of solar power generation of China is larger, we must give concern on technology progress, and therefore, we speed up the technology progress. We released the opinion of solar technological product application and industry upgrade. We request that the transition rate of polysilicon component is 16.5% and the solar component of single crystal components is higher than 17%. Briefly speaking, it is one percent higher than that of common products. In 2015, there was a depressed coal producing area in Datong, Shaanxi, the surface is damaged in some extent, we use this ground to build a solar power generation base in Datong. The total plan of the base is 3GW. In the first stage, it started one GW. Totally it had 15 projects and one GW. It is estimated that it will be completed in June and July completely.


Our method is this: first, the investor of the project, namely, the developer, is selected through competition. The bidding method is obtained through competition. The enterprise obtaining the project must adopt the products that meet the technologies of the top runner program. Meanwhile, our country entrusts professional technical agency to monitor and assess from its design and purchase to its construction and final operation in the whole process. Finally, we find whether it reaches the results of the top runner program. In the next step, we should start the construction of 4-5 top runner bases of solar generation. 


Another one is new energy grid integration project. In 2012 we started a power grid project focusing on solar power generation. 8 roof solar projects at MW level have been built among 3000 residents. Meanwhile it has a hot pump application. It can use electrical power directly from solar power and it also has a mall sized system of electrical vehicle.


We do some activities on solar power financing innovation, of course, these activities are promoted by industrial association, use new energy economic association to establish the China Solar Electric Power Work League, which has four purposes. The first is the routine mechanism established by solar power generation enterprise and financial institution and let the financial institution to understand solar industry. The second is the strategic cooperation relationship established between financial institutions and solar power generation enterprises. That is, it shall have more belief on solar power generation project. In other financing aspects, for example, financing loan interests, examined conditions, procedure simplicity and interests decrease etc. The third is to use the platform of league to carry out new-type diversified financial innovation such as crowdfunding, internet financing and P2P of a new financing mode. This platform is a public solar power generation operating data monitoring and assessing. In the next step we have experts to introduce this platform. After the platform is built, the provider of the capital for solar power generation can find the practical operating result of this power station and it can observe the real time data and make the provider rest assured to supply capital assured. 


Another one is the new energy industry development league. The development league is co-sponsored by China Overseas Development Association, China Association of Circular Economy, China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute and Xiexin Company. The purposes of this league are: the first is to build a platform of new energy information exchange and international cooperation; the second is to promote the financial and industrial cooperation of oversea investment project. Among the present development modes of China, the China's investment, project and capital supply needs a whole industrial chain cooperation pattern. The third is to promote the application of new energy industrial standard in international world. This is conducive to the development of technology and equipment of China. The last is to promote the international development of new energy product manufacturing.


In solar aspects, of course, including wind power and new energy equipment manufacturing, in future, not only manufacturing of China, but also overseas manufacturing and other distribution of other countries, it needs more distribution in other countries of Asia. Therefore, we should make the new energy manufacturing of China realize globalization. In the next step, the solar power generation prospect is very good. 


The future solar installation capacity, I think, it is estimated to reach 450-600 mKw up to 2020. I think it is higher than that of the one shown in the drawing of 450GW, it may reach 600GW. Up to 2030, it will reach 1000-1500GW. I am not sure up to 2050. I can say that scale is beyond our imagination.


As for the calculating of technical progress, value and cost, I think at present it needs to enter the quick price decrease period of solar power generation, we find that it will decrease 5 Jiao each kwh, is that right? Some experts said that 5 Jiao for environmental and social benefits is rational value. We think that solar power generation has huge prospect.


Meanwhile, we don't provide PPT here.  Add a point, solar power generation of China, that is, solar heat power generation; it had begun to organize the demonstration project in the last half year of last year. Recently we are preparing to release this batch of projects. The project scale is about one GW. I think we need to develop solar heat power generation. The solar power generation will have bright prospect in future. 


Finally, we conclude that the ground with sunshine have energy. Thank you!